MLBWild Card odds, picks, best bets

The Mets staged the comeback of a lifetime on Monday, overcoming two deficits late in the first game to defeat the Atlanta Braves 8-7 and advance to the postseason.

However, the Mets will be dealing with some fatigue given the quick turnaround to Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series on Tuesday in Milwaukee.

It won't help that they're facing a Brewers team that has dominated the season, winning five of the six games, including two of three last weekend.

More importantly, the Mets haven't yet figured out which Milwaukee starting pitcher is Freddy Peralta, who became the team's star after last year's announcement that Brandon Woodruff would miss the entire season with a shoulder injury.

Mets vs Brewers Game 1 Odds

2024 has already been a success for Severino

Although expectations will be high for Mets starter Luis Severino, this couldn't be a tougher place for him to be.

The Mets signed Severino to a one-year deal worth $13 million to fill the rotation. Had Severino played well enough in 19 appearances (18 starts) for the Yankees last year (4-8, 6.65 ERA), he never would have hit the free-agent market.

So his performance this year (11-7, 3.91 ERA) in 31 starts suggests he still has a good arm to help a major league team.

This season has already been a success for Severino and his pursuit of another long-term contract. There's nothing he can do about it in the postseason.

The biggest surprise is that he's now striking out fewer batters per nine innings (K/9), even though he's averaging about 96.2 mph with his fastball.

FanGraphs lists his 7.96 K/9 ratio as the lowest of his nine-year career.

Since last year, he's increased his sinker usage from 2.8% to 24.8%, but Milwaukee's lineup is scoring 7.1 runs above the league average when looking at the pitch.

His head-to-head numbers against this Brewers squad aren't great either, hitting .333 with a .406 wOBA and .459 xSLG in 48 plate appearances.

Peralta wants to continue his dominance

Turning to Peralta, his 10.36 K/9 ratio suggests that he is among the elite when it comes to missing bats.

In his seven years with the Brewers, he has continued to develop, increasing his fastball velocity to over 94 mph while adding heat (53.9%) with a slider (21.7%), a changeup (17, 5%) and a curveball (7.0%). ).

The impressive thing about Peralta is that despite his versatility, he has the confidence to throw any pitch in his arsenal at any time. All four of his pitches have a putaway rate of at least 19%, with the curveball being the highest at 24.4%.

His slider could be useful against a Mets team that is 21.5 runs below average on the field.

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This Mets' squad struggled mightily against Peralta, hitting just .200 in 83 plate appearances.

According to the Action Network, the Metropolitans are 0-3 against the Brewers right-hander and are outscored 21-5 in those games.

Since Milwaukee is just a -142 favorite on FanDuel, I can only look to the home team for Game 1 in this wild card matchup.

Best Bet: Brewers ML (-142, FanDuel)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

For the New York Post, Michael Arinze hinders most major sports. He has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay in his betting career, which spanned eight games of the Little League World Series. Most recently, he precisely selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and the Copa America.