September 2024 Pennsylvania Poll: Trump 48%, Harris 48%

The Senate election in Pennsylvania remains close

According to a new Emerson College/RealClearPennsylvania poll, 48% of voters support former President Donald Trump and 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in the Keystone State. Half of voters (50%) expect Harris to win, while 49% expect Trump to win.

The US Senate election in Pennsylvania is also approaching: 47% support incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, while 45% support Republican David McCormick; 8% are undecided.

“Casey leads among voters under 50, 53% to 37%, while McCormick leads among voters over 50, 51% to 43%,” noted Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “For the women, Casey has an 11-point lead, 52% to 41%, while the men have an eight-point lead for McCormick, 50% to 42%.”

Voters were asked which presidential candidate they thought would be better suited to their personal financial situation. A majority of voters (51%) think Trump is the better candidate, while 44% think Harris is the better candidate for their financial situation in Pennsylvania.

• Democrats think Harris is better for their personal finances, 86% to 10%, Republicans think Trump is better, 91% to 6%, and independents approve of Trump, 50% to 38%.

The most important issue for voters is the economy (50%). Sixty percent of voters believe their economic situation is worse today than it was five years ago, while 22 percent say it is better and 18 percent say it is no different.

• A majority of Democrats (39%) think their situation is better, 32% think it is worse, and 29% think it is no different. A majority of Republicans (84%) think it's worse, as do a majority of Independents (65%).

When it comes to fracking, 50% are more likely to trust Trump to get the issue under control, while 39% are more likely to trust Harris. Eleven percent don't trust any candidate.

Gov. Josh Shapiro has an approval rating of 47%, while 35% disapprove of his job as governor. 35 percent reject Shapiro and 18 percent are neutral.

President Biden has 38% approval of the job he is doing, while 54% disapprove of the job he is doing and 8% are neutral.

methodology

The Emerson College Polling/RealClear PA survey was conducted September 27-28, 2024. The sample of likely voters in Pennsylvania is n=1,000. The polls have a credibility interval, similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE), of +/-3 percentage points. Datasets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on modeling of likely voters in 2024. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, voter surveys, and voter registration data.

It is important to keep in mind that subsets based on demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity result in higher credibility intervals when the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the survey's rating range, and with a 95% confidence interval, a survey will fall outside the rating range 1 in 20 times.

Data were collected by contacting mobile phones via MMS-to-Web Text (Aristotle's Phone List) and through an online voter panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.

For all questions asked in this survey, including the exact wording, as well as full results, demographics, and crosstabs, see Full Results. The Pennsylvania survey is sponsored by RealClear Pennsylvania.

FULL RESULTS